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Day November 4, 2009

Entries 3 Total

Garmin (GRMN) : Bearish ….

Nov 4, ’09 11:29 PM

Garmin has very bearish chart today.

Like the broader market, Garmin rallies on market open but quickly reverse as its results was released.

From $30 to $33, it quickly lose ground and is now back at $30 (before the day ends).

From a technical analysis standpoint, this is  a very bearish chart.

1. Candlestick shows Bearish engulment

2. Ichimoku shows bearish cross from the Tenkan sen – Kijun sen cross

3. Price is falling off the kumo (or exiting from the kumo).

4. Leading kumo is showing signs of a twist

That’s quite a few confirmation sign of a bearish outlook.

Garmin_is_dead

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Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) : Swing Play

Nov 4, ’09 6:48 PM

Avis (CAR) beat analyst estimates by 10 cents and this news setup a pretty good swing trade it.
From the Weekly chart, we can see that thick kumo support is around $8.

On the Daily Chart,  price action is below kumo with no bullish play at the moment.

What could happen moving forward? Given that CAR beats analyst estimates, there should be some upgrades coming forward and that will help push the price up. We may have a bullish play moving forward.

At the same time, if we look back at the Weekly chart, the leading kumo starts to thin out and this suggest weaker support in times to come (even if it is a bullish play on the Daily)

2009Nov-Avis Budget Group Inc-800x600_Weekly2009Nov-Avis Budget Group Inc-800x600

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A Review of Trend Trading with Ichimoku on PALM

Nov 4, ’09 5:19 PM

Here’s a review of how I have traded PALM using Ichimoku.

I will provide 2 set of entry and exit prices. You should be able to identify a 3rd set of entry and exit (which will not result in much profit).

1. Entry 1 (Jan 8, 2009)

- PALM gap up on news of Elevation Partners investing in it.

- The chart shows the price and Tenkan sen, Kijun sen going above the kumo

- Let’s assume we got in at the high of the day at 6.58 (Day 1)

- Subsequent days did not go below the low of Day 1, so we are not stop out.

2. Exit 1 (Feb 27, 2009)

- Tenkan sen – Kijun sen has a bearish cross

- We assume we get out at the low of the day at 7.124

- Profit = (7.124 – 6.58) = 0.544 per share

3. Entry 2 (March 23, 2009)

- Tenkan sen – Kijun sen Bullish cross

- Price also rebound off kumo support

- Get in on March 24 after the price has cleared the resistance at around 8.69 , entry price is 8.75

4.  Exit 2 (July 23, 2009)

- Tenkan sen – Kijun sen Bearish cross

- Get out at 13.71 (low of day)

- Profit = (13.71 – 8.75) = 4.96 per share

So, total profit is $5.50 per share (from the 2 trades)

2009Nov-Palm Inc-800x600

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