$GMCR . Can it stay above the kumo?

It seems like $GMCR is going to have a setup for a bearish move.

From the Ichimoku chart, we can identify the following trading signals:

1. Bearish cross from Tenkan sen and Kijun sen; reflective of the price dropped from $32 to $24

2. Thin kumo support below the current price level suggests that the support is not strong

3. Steep kumo from the past shows the huge change in business trends, a reminder of the changes its business challenges.

And here’s a reminder :

Why Einhorn shorted GMCR?

  • Low operating cash flow
  • Negative fre cash flow (and getting more negative)
  • CAPEX was high and rising
  • Valuations sky high
  • EPS was slowing and return on invested capital was relatively low
  • Increase competition (<< this is a killer, price pressure on product pricing)
  • Loss of exclusivity patents (where’s the moat?)