I believed TLT is overbought in the short term.
Looking at the parabolic rise and that it may break the support, I have a speculative Sept 110 PUT on TLT.
My bet is that it will break support within 1 week.
However, given the volatile market conditions and the bigger economic concerns from Europe, Libya etc, I am keeping a close watch on it with a tight stop lost in place.
Note: This is a speculative move on my part. There is no confirmation from the chart that TLT has turned bearish.
TLT has breakout of its high from August 2010.
It is in a very strong bullish move reminiscent to the move back in November 2008; peak of the crisis?
Not only is TLT move steeper this time round (moving upwards faster), it also seems more gappy.
Back in 2008, within 1 month from the November move, TLT starts crashing down.
Will we see a similar move this time round? If yes, what could be the cause? I can only wait for a confirmation. Before that, I will sit tight and avoid placing a speculative bet.
TLT has a fairly big drop yesterday. High of $96.87 and closing at $95.65
The drop pierce through both the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen (trendline).
If it fails to hold above $96, we have an immediate target of $94 and $93.
Also note that both the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen are fairly close now. Any drop that pierce through the kumo support will give a bearish cross confirmation.
Vested.
