Category Commodities

Entries 33 Total

$GLD : Is this the end of the bull run?

Sep 23, ’11 3:49 PM

Yesterday, market drop on the equities side presented an interesting observation on the GOLD (or $GLD) chart.

From the chart, there’s 2 clear signal that could mean an end to its bullish run.

1. A Tenkan sen – Kijun sen bearish cross on the chart.

2. A gap down on the price level.

At around $169, and the kumo support at around $165, it is fair to say that the support is not that strong.

In fact, the bearish signal overwhelms the bullish signals in the near term.

For those thinking of entering a long position for Gold, the best thing to do is wait. The fall for Gold can be very ferocious.

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iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) : Is it bullish yet?

Jul 14, ’11 10:33 PM

In my previous post on $SLV, I highlighted that the letter ‘h’ might form on the chart.

However, it did not. Instead it bounced off the support level near $32 and stage a comeback.

However, I will be wary of a bullish move for SLV for the next few months (at least till Nov-Dec).

We see a dramatic fall of SLV from $48 to $32 within one week.

Since then, the buy side volume has not bee high compared to the sell side volume in May.

Technically on the Ichimoku chart, we can also see that SLV is facing heavy resistance from the kumo; all the way to $40.

Unless, we have a breakout above the kumo with good volume, I suspect the SLV rally will be shortlived. Short term, I see SLV retracing to $32 levels and I am thinking it will happen before year ends.

Beyond that, I will need to wait for the Ichimoku chart to develop further.

Note:

Not vested.

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Noble Group ($N21): Watch for 1.89

Jul 11, ’11 8:27 PM

Noble Group’s chart continue to show weakness.

The leading kumo shows heavy resistance from current level of 1.9 to 2.07

Having rallied to $2 last week, it has since give up much of the gains and close near the support level of $1.89

A break at this level will see it goes towards 1.70; most likely 1.56

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