Category REIT

Entries 15 Total

Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) : Watch the volume and the kumo resistance

Sep 30, ’09 12:05 PM

It’s been quite some time since my last ARE trade; a trade that I cut-loss.

I am not sure what caught my eyes today. Subconsciously,  my mind was telling me to take a look at ARE again.

An interesting development on the Ichimoku charts.

On the Weekly Chart, I can see that ARE has hit the kumo’s wall; a very thick wall and a representation that resistance is strong moving forward. And with that it turns.

While it is normal for price to fluctuate and trade within range, what caught my eyes were the price action on the Daily Chart.

On the Daily Chart, we can see that there is some kind of sell off on September 24 which results in the price gapping down on opening. This year alone, there are 5  such sell offs (with volume more than 4.7M).

  • March 19
  • March 20
  • April 21
  • April 22
  • Sept 24

From a technical analysis point of view, we can deduce the following:

  • The current uptrend has been broken
  • We may see a period of price consolidation
  • It is still too early to say if the downtrend has started
  • Ichimoku Weekly Chart  suggest heavy resistance and price is entering the Weekly kumo (a period of trendless state)

2009Sep-Alexandria Real Estate Inc-800x600_Weekly2009Sep-Alexandria Real Estate Inc-800x600For now, I will continue monitoring the charts for the indicators to align. Not vested at this point.

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Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) : Soar to $51

Aug 6, ’09 9:51 PM

This is another counter that I have to cut-loss.

The good thing about it, is I cut loss fast.

The moment it break out of its $40 resistance, I know something is not right. Add to that, there’s quite a fair number of shorts covering.

Currently, it is trading at $51 on news that it has raised its FFO guidance.

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Bernanke : Commercial Property May Pose Risk for Economy

Jul 23, ’09 12:54 AM

Commercial real estate could be the next catalyst for a major market correction….. (according to Bernanke).

Among the key points noted:

1. Commercial market is potentially bigger than the residential market (hence, a much larger problem here)

2. Increased vacancy, declining rents, falling prices. That almost sum up the 3 pillars of real estate. If all of them are still falling, then we have not seen the bottom yet. It is still falling. Companies are still not hiring. More restructuring are going on.

3. Which leads me to the third point. Debt ratio. Essentially, now is the worst time to go ‘long’ on property related stocks (including REITs). Lots of them are highly geared and with falling demand, prices and rents, it is extremely difficult for them to increased revenue. I am not sure how they are going to raise the funds to pay. But, I see a possible repeat of GM, or CIT.

4. At some point in time, the musical chair party will stop. And some will no longer be with us. So, do be careful out there.

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