Alexandria Real Estate (ARE)

Richard Woon of Stripnomics has a good analysis of the challenges facing ARE.

I encourage those who are interested to find out more to visit his site.

My focus is to highlight ARE’s possible support level.

Like Richard, I have a negative outlook on ARE (and in general a number of REITs).

However, we need to be patient with ARE. For the very short term, it is unlikely to break below the support level of 32.77

Why? This is because, we have seen that level being supported 3 times since October 2008. ARE needs to have a very bad news for it to go below that level.

And, off my mind, one of the possibilities is securing refinancing needs.

For this chart, we cannot rely on the kumo for resistant analysis as ARE has a spike in price on 27 Feb. We can see that the Tenkan sen (pink line), the kumo all have ‘abnormal’ behavior because of the spike. However, we can still rely on the Chikou Span (green line) to find our support and resistant levels. 

Looking at the Kijun sen which is flattening out, it is suggesting that the price may stabilize around the trading level of 32 – 37.




Chart Review of Citibank (C)

Citibank. Much as I am bearish about its prospect for a long time to come, I have to acknowledge that there are factors beyond me that has prevented this company from going down completely.

Rather than figuring out such issues, let’s just focus on the chart and see if there are areas where we can trade this counter.

The good news is with the good bank-bad bank announcement, C has rally a fair bit.

While the chart shows Tenkan sen crossing Kijun sen on 19 March, what follows suggests that this rally for C is running out of momentum in the short term. The first key reversal comes when it hits the weekly resistant level of 3.85; one that sees it closes at the opening price of the previous day.

More importantly, look the kumo resistant ahead. Thick kumo cloud suggests that resistant levels will be heavy with trend still showing downwards pressure.

From the Kijun sen, we can see that it is flattening out. This suggest that the price level will  most likely remain at this level. My suspicion is , it will trade between $2 and $2.60



DOW Weekly Chart as of 24 March

With the recent rally, it is easy to find many news articles declaring that the market has bottom and it is all the way up.

But, it wasn’t that long ago when Obama was sworn in that we have such similar feeling.

Let’s go back to some fundamentals and let the charts tells us the story.

Here, we are going to examine DOW’s weekly chart.

3 things that shows the trend is still down (look at the respective points on the chart.

  1. Point 1. Tenkan sen is still trending down and beginning to flatten (signalling that short term it isn’t going anywhere)
  2. Point 2. Kijun sen is still trending down and DOW has not breakout of this resistant
  3. Point 3. The forward kumo shows that it is still trending down. With such a huge drop in recent days, what has change that can all of a sudden change the economy? Are banks going to lend money like back in 2007?

Moving forward, we see a fairly strong resistant at 8011 levels identified by the Chikou Span. Even if DOW manage to rally to this level, I doubt it will be able to break through this level.