MasterCard ($MA) : Bearish Tweezer Top


MasterCard ($MA) has been lagging behind its competitors in many areas in the market. More importantly, in the areas of innovation and new markets, it is now facing competition not just from traditional competitors like VISA but also the likes of PayPal, AliPay etc.

The chart shows a bullish run up of MasterCard with good strong volume breaking out of the thin Kumo resistance with a gap.

What troubles me is the candle reversal at the top. Almost the very next day after reaching its peak, $MA reverse at the same peak price level and the bears seems to be taking hold of the situation and reverse the whole gains in the same day. It could be short term traders cashing in their profits. After, a sell down could easily push it to the low $80 range.

To quote Bulkowski definition on Tweezers Top:

Tweezers top candlesticks are simple to find in a historical price series. Just look for two adjacent candles with the same high price in an uptrend. Candle theory says that the pair is supposed to be a bearish reversal because it illustrates overhead resistance, but my tests show that tweezers tops actually act as bullish continuations 56% of the time. That performance is, of course, near random. Thus, expect the breakout to be in any direction. With an overall performance ranking of 81 (where 1 is best), that suggests the price trend after the breakout is weak.

Trade with care.


$GMCR . Can it stay above the kumo?

It seems like $GMCR is going to have a setup for a bearish move.

From the Ichimoku chart, we can identify the following trading signals:

1. Bearish cross from Tenkan sen and Kijun sen; reflective of the price dropped from $32 to $24

2. Thin kumo support below the current price level suggests that the support is not strong

3. Steep kumo from the past shows the huge change in business trends, a reminder of the changes its business challenges.

And here’s a reminder :

Why Einhorn shorted GMCR?

  • Low operating cash flow
  • Negative fre cash flow (and getting more negative)
  • CAPEX was high and rising
  • Valuations sky high
  • EPS was slowing and return on invested capital was relatively low
  • Increase competition (<< this is a killer, price pressure on product pricing)
  • Loss of exclusivity patents (where’s the moat?)