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Research In Motion Ltd ($RIMM) : Break long term support and more to go..

 

RIMM announces on Thursday after trading hours that it was missing revenue target and analyst estimates.

With that news, price breaks the support at $35 with a gap down that goes below $30 convincingly with a show of high volume.

From the Ichimoku chart, we can see that $35 is the lows for RIMM way back during the financial crisis. Now, that the price is trading below $30, it is a strong suggestion that the challenges for RIMM is even greater when compared to 2008.

Among the most important indicator for RIMM will be its shipment and sales for Playbook. Despite RIMM downplay on the importance of it, there is no denial that the tablet market is where the growth is.

Competitors includes Apple (AAPL) with the iPad2 and Google with Android. And we also need to watch out for Hewlette-Packard with the WebOS and they are expected to launch some new tablets products this July (only about 2 weeks from now). Lenovo has also come out with their vision and version of the tablets.

There is no doubt, the success of the tablets will be a great indication of whether RIMM is able to transform itself.

From the trading chart point of view, we only need to reference Nokia (NOK) and Palm’s charts to see a similar pattern. RIMM is going through what Palm went through a few years back.

Remember the story of number of units shipped? Yes, likewise analysts will be trying to find ways to check if the number of units shipped translate to actual sales.

The difference between companies like HPQ and Lenovo will be the channels. HPQ and Lenovo have a strong sales channel both within the entreprise market and the retail. However, for RIMM, this is definitely lacking. And it will take lots of time to build up this channel; a luxury that RIMM will not have.

My believe, RIMM is poised to go down even more. My guess. Below $20 by Dec 2011.

Note:

1. This is not a time to bottom picked. It can goes lower.

2. If it turns around, we should see consolidation on the chart first.

3. I am vested with a bearish bias.

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