Publishing Tech

$AOL . Bearish setup forming

This is a short that is worth looking into.

Unlike the market index like $SPX or /ES, AOL chart has show :

1. The price has not went up further. And it is now below the Tenkan sen

2. The Tenkan sen is turning down (whereas /ES is still exhibiting parabolic movement)

3. The gap between Tenkan sen and Kijun sen is narrowing. This suggest a possibility that a Bearish cross may be forming.

4. Gap support is around $17.17

5. The kumo support is thin towards the first week of March period.

Given the support below and a possible price target of $15 and $12, I will be looking for a SHORT CALL SPREAD.


Yahoo Inc (YHOO): A bearish view


Yahoo (YHOO) has been trading in a very tight range since its gap up in October last year.

Since that gap up, it has been trading between a low of $15.50 and a high $17.78

The high took place at a time when the S&P 500 was at its peak this year as well.

We can see from the chart that it has drop back below the kumo; a bearish sign.

At this moment, Yahoo (YHOO) is trading below the kumo with a possible resistance from the kumo at $16.60

I will be looking for an entry to short YHOO. A break below $15.50 will give me a target of $14.60 and ultimately, $13.00

Yahoo has been cost cutting for quite a fairly long time. Developers were laid off and a fair amount of work outsource.

As a technological company, what is Yahoo’s strength? And if it is positioning itself as a content company, it will be going against the likes of AOL.

What plus point will want see moving forward? And do shareholders believe that Carol Bartz can re-invent this company?

My personal opinion is NO.

I believe the strategy forward for Yahoo is pretty much focused on getting their balance sheet clean up and looks attractive. After which, they will be acquired and that translate to an exit strategy for the senior management.

What do you think?


AOL Inc. (AOL) : Thinking Out Loud

– Will be listed today
– zero debt
– current CEO is ex-GOOG, in charge of ads (how much will that change in terms of strategy?)

Revenue Source
– dial-up subscribers,
– ads revenue
– content licensing


– falling ads revenue for the possible next quarters (may report its first quarter with increased revenue due to holiday season)
– primarily a US play, how are they going to attract audience beyond the shores of US or increase its share?

– publishing industry going through restructuring
– opportunity to hire talents and seek new shores
– most likely will put together a plan to grow revenue from mobile devices
– possible partnership or acquisition with Garmin (mapping is an important play on many companies now, AOL also owns maps)

What else?