Categories
Tech

$NFLX . Bearish?

 

 

$NFLX was actually featured during Apple’s new iPad launch.

However, despite being featured prominently, the share price did not react positively.

While the general market has surge higher, NFLX is not going anywhere.

On the Ichimoku chart, NFLX is now showing:

1. A bearish cross from the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen

2. Sitting on a fairly thin kumo support

3. We can also see that the current price level is below the gap from Jan 26.

A drop below the kumo will allow us to have a target of $60 price range.

Categories
Tech

Is $RIMM new OS really that great?

First off, this is not a post about the technical superiority of any OS.

Secondly, I am vested with a SHORT position on RIMM. So, read this with a huge pinch of salt.

For the past few days, the media has been reporting Mr. Leon Cooperman’s ownership of 1.42 million of $RIMM  shares as of Sept 30. Clearly, this suggests that the shares were bought between July to September. As we can see from the chart below, the price range from $20 to around $32 during that period.

 

 

My guess is his entry will be around $25.

During that period, the common reasons to buy RIMM are:

  • US$25B cash they have
  • Little or no debt
  • P/E of less than 10
  • Corporate entreprise still uses RIMM
  • Emerging markets are growing (despite the loss in North America)
And still RIMM falls hard. Not only does it go below $20, it breaks a critical support at around $18.50 . I recall when RIMM has the service outage, it was holding its price fairly well. What is causing the drop?
Now, back to Mr. Leon Cooperman. A Bloomberg article carries the headline RIM’S NEW OPERATING SYSTEM WILLL ‘SURPRISE’, COOPERMAN SAYS.

I have a lot of respect for Mr Cooperman for being a successful fund manager. However, I cannot agree with the statement. Just because the new operating system ‘surprises’ does not mean it can turn the company around. If that is the case, Palm will have an easy walk in the park with their webOS when it first launch (granted, Palm’s financial position is nothing to brag about).

In this new war for the ‘tablet/smartphone’ market share, it is not the device or the widget that is creating the turn. With iOS and Android cornering the major bulk of the market share, what else is left for RIMM? Microsoft will also be pursuing this market together with Nokia. As far as the ‘device’ market share is concerned, RIMM is up against Apple, Nokia, Samsung, HTC and many more.

In terms of vertical markets like Music, Videos, Publishing, Applications and Software, RIMM is losing developer base and competing with Google, Apple and Amazon in creating valuable relationships with various verticals customers. For example, Amazon most and Google most likely own the Publishing space. Where does all these leave RIMM? Will RIMM be able to replace Apple’s iTunes and their relationship with the music labels?

Internally, RIMM is losing a lot of executives including Top Execs heading the emerging markets. If this is not a sign of a sinking ship, what is? Imagine, the various Heads of your fastest growing markets are jumping ship?

RIMM has totally lost its momentum on Innovations, Growing the Community, and keeping their top executives. Meanwhile, competitors continue to gain market share at their expenses.

Anyone running a race will know how difficult it is to regain the top position once you lose the focus and momentum. This is where RIMM is at. And technically, the chart shows continue bearish movement to come.

At best, a technical rebound. However, with 5 gap down in 1 year, there is very little hope for RIMM.

Categories
Tech

$RIMM : Rally has failed. Price below kumo

RIMM counter rally has fail. It never make it to break out of the kumo resistance.

With yesterday’s earnings, RIMM has gap down. And on the Ichimoku chart, we have a very strong confirmation of a bearish move. The price is below the kumo now confirming that the bear trend is back.

We can also see that the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen has crossed downwards.

With Apple iPhone 5 expected to launch in October, RIMM will find it hard to catch up in terms of units sold for its BlackBerry. Other challenges includes Apple consolidating its position in tablet sales and most likely with a new tablet in the coming months.

But, what really worries me is Q1 2012 report from RIMM. In the report, RIMM used ‘shipped’ .

I recall Palm faces the same problem a few years back when the webOS was just unveiled. They too used the term ‘shipped’. Does ‘shipped’ equal ‘sales’?

If it does not equate to ‘sales’, then inventories and write-offs are going to come back and haunt them.

Note:

Bearish. Vested with PUTS.