Sept 15 post highlighted that TLT has a bearish confirmation via the Tenkan sen – Kijun sen bearish cross.
However, the price pretty much hit a support level and rally up; further fuel by the news from FOMC meeting that they are prepared to support the market (possibly via buying bonds). That leads to a strong rebound.
But the rebound was pretty short lived.
The first sign of trouble happens yesterday. On the Intradya chart, TLT open high at around 105.6 but traded down to as low as 104.20 by mid-day. The closing price fail to break above $105. The sharp drop in the first half of the day suggest weakness on TLT part.
Today, if TLT fails to goes up, we will have another confirmation for a bearish move. This time from the Chikou Span.
We can see from the Daily Chart that Chikou Span (red line) has cut through the price level. From the chart, I am expecting a move towards the next support level at $101 (which happens to be around the kumo).
I believe the kumo support will not hold as it is pretty thin; though support at $98 is a fair bit stronger.