Consumer Goods

$GMCR . Can it stay above the kumo?

It seems like $GMCR is going to have a setup for a bearish move.

From the Ichimoku chart, we can identify the following trading signals:

1. Bearish cross from Tenkan sen and Kijun sen; reflective of the price dropped from $32 to $24

2. Thin kumo support below the current price level suggests that the support is not strong

3. Steep kumo from the past shows the huge change in business trends, a reminder of the changes its business challenges.

And here’s a reminder :

Why Einhorn shorted GMCR?

  • Low operating cash flow
  • Negative fre cash flow (and getting more negative)
  • CAPEX was high and rising
  • Valuations sky high
  • EPS was slowing and return on invested capital was relatively low
  • Increase competition (<< this is a killer, price pressure on product pricing)
  • Loss of exclusivity patents (where’s the moat?)

$SPX . Ichimoku Tenkan sen resistance

Having bounce off 1289 (or kumo support on Ichimoku Weekly Support), /ES is now hitting the resistance level from Tenkan sen .

At this moment, it remains a bearish trade from the Ichimoku chart.

With price level close to the resistance level, it represents a good entry for a short with a stop-loss just above the Kijun sen.



$NFLX . Target $68

I have shorted $NFLX since it gap down on Apr 24.

Overall, the Ichimoku chart is showing very bearish signs for NFLX.

1. It is now trading below the kumo

2. Bearish cross has been confirmed

Target price $68 range.