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Automotive

Harley Davidson (HOG) : Bearish Swing Trade

Harley Davidson (HOG) has a few indications that it is now in Bearish.

1. On Ichimoku Weekly Chart, we can see that it is now trading inside the kumo which represents a trendless state.

2. On the Daily Chart, we can see that Chikou Span has cut the price level and rebound off the support at 21.05

3. This is further support by the Tenkan sen cutting the Kijun sen dowwards ( a bearish sign)

4. The leading kumo is also starting to twist; an indication of a change in trend.

5. From the Chaikin Money Flow indicator, we can see that the accumulation is dropping. Will there be a distribution coming soon? Hard to say. But, with the indicator trending lower, the chance of the price level going much higher is limited.

6. Possible swing trade. Entry around 23.03 or 24.41. Look for candles pattern.

2009Oct-Harley Davidson Inc-800x600_Weekly

2009Oct-Harley Davidson Inc-800x600

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Harley-Davidson (HOG) : Short signals on HOG

This is a recap of my short position on HOG.

Trade was initiated on Monday (June 8) based on last Friday’s chart (June 5)

1. Weekly Chart still shows the kumo is trending down.

2. On daily, price has fall back into the kumo on higher volume.

3. Confirming this includes other indicators
– Force Index changing to Bearish
– Stochastics cross and dip below 80%
– MacD line is showing a cross and is below 0
– MacD histogram has a count of 4green bars and 1 red bar

Attached is the chart as of last Friday.

2009jun-harley-davidson-inc-800x600

Next, we can take a chart ending June 9.

We can see that both Monday exhibits more selling with yesterday’s volume surging to almost 15million compared to an average of about 4.5million

The price also touch the bottom of the kumo and reverse. An indication that maybe the facts from the fundamentals side is not showing up yet.

2009jun9-harley-davidson-inc-800x600

Let’s see how far this ‘short’ will go.