/CL : Bearish with kumo resistance

If there’s one trade that is worth looking at, it will be Crude Oil.

As 2014 closes, crude fell from $115 to around $40 since June.

News outlet begin reporting about possible reasons:

  • Price war from OPEC
  • Too much supply in the form of shale oil from US
  • Weak demand

A common theme I heard from fellow traders is “it is now low enough to buy”. They said it at $80, and they said it again at $60. And again at $50 and the beginning of the year when the price is at $40s.

However, if we were to look at the chart and see how crude oil break down in June, what justification do we have that this is a good time to go LONG?

From the Ichimoku Daily Chart for /CL, we can see the following:

  1. Since last June, when it breaks support, crude has started on a bearish trend
  2. Towards end December, we saw some consolidation of price. However, is this a bear flag formation ‘in-progress’ ?
  3.  From the Ichimoku chart, we can also see that it has hit the Chikou Span resistance twice
  4. The leading kumo continues to shows a huge resistance with no change in trend.

Based on the observation above, there is a high chance that we may see a downward movement towards the $40 next week.



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GBP/USD : Ichimoku Weekly Support

With the upcoming vote in Scotland on its independence, GBP/USD has fall off the cliff from 1.71 to 1.61 within a month.

On the daily Ichimoku chart, it seems that the trend remains pessimistic with no consolidation in place. Though it has bounce off a low of 1.6103 with immediate resistance at  1.6332

GBP/USD bearish on Scotland's vote

On the Ichimoku weekly chart, it is more optimistic with the uptrend remains intact. Current price range is inside the kumo which suggest that the trend is unconfirmed (pending vote results).

Kumo support extends all the way to 1.58 on the weekly chart.

GBP/USD : Ichimoku Weekly Chart Support

Trading ideas:

1. We can wait for the results and if it breaks 1.64, that could be a good entry point.

2. If it fails to break through 1.64 after the results, it could be a short entry point.


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EUR/USD . Ichimoku chart suggest weak support

$EUR/USD . Ichimoku chart suggest weak support

The daily Ichimoku chart for $EUR/USD is suggesting that the uptrend for EUR/USD is coming to an end.

1. We can see that the overall trend is flattening or hitting a plateau with the kumo turning flat.

2. A bearish cross seems to be forming between the Kijun sen and Tenkan sen

3. Support is thin at the kumo

4. Leading kumo seems to suggest a change in trend may be coming.