Commodities : Are we due for a rally yet?

The CRB is one of the key index to monitor the commodities trend.

With the recent USD weakening, we have seen that the CRB has form somewhat of a ‘cup-shape’ which suggest that there a bullish trend is in formation.

However, Ichimoku is telling us another story :

  1. The price level is currently inside the kumo which represents a trendless state.
  2. This is further supported by the flattening kumo and the horizontal kijun sen; that the ‘average’ moving range is range bound and there is no sign that trend has turned.
  3. However, we do note that there is a possibility that a cup-and-handle is forming. If it does formed, we want to see the price level break through the kumo together with the Chikou Span piercing through it.