$BBRY . Blackberry Setup for bearish move

$BBRY - Ichimoku Bearish move setup
$BBRY – Ichimoku Bearish move setup

The Ichimoku chart is showing a good setup for $BBRY.

Currently, it’s closing price is at $16.67.

On the Ichimoku Daily Chart, a bearish cross seems to be forming and the thin kumo support below suggest weak support below.

A break from this level will give us a target of $12.50

Some catalyst to consider:

  1. Are sales really good in the emerging markets that $BBRY is targeting? Are they getting converts?
  2. Have they gain traction with the developer’s base?
  3. Are the existing customer base going to upgrade their BlackBerry or are they going to switch to an iPhone or an Android based phone?

Research In Motion ($RIMM): Strong support at $35


RIMM has break its support at $42.72 and is now poised to head towards the lows in 2008 (around $35).

This is a fairly strong support as it was the lows of 2008 (during the financial crisis). It was tested twice and with it a ‘W’ pattern was formed and it rebounced off the levels.

So, what has changed since then?

1. RIMM is now lagging behind in the smartphone market; playing catchup to Apple’s iPhone (or iOS) and Google’s Android.

2. New competitors includes Nokia (with its partnership with MSFT) and HPQ with its webOS (formerly Palm).

3. Matured and slowing growth for its BlackBerry server.

I expect $35 to be supported first. Whether it will continue to hold will depend on its execution for its Playbook and other new smartphone devices based on the new platform (QNX).

Unfortunately, market demand is not with RIMM on the above. Apple’s iPhone commands a huge following, has a great established ‘App Store’ and the newly iCloud service will continue to lock in users and create demand from the younger generation as well (through music, videos and other digital consumption).


Garmin (GRMN) : Chart Review

A follow up review on GRMN.

Garmin continues on its bearish move since my May’s post.

With the downward trend so strong, I won’t be surprised if GRMN will go below $15 soon.

Will the average user be buying a smartphone from Garmin? Or will they choose from Apple, Motorola, Samsung, Nokia, BlackBerry etc.

What will be the catalyst for it to rise?

Among the typical M&A, going private etc. In fact, I am thinking about possibility of RIMM acquiring GRMN.

This is really a stretch on my imagination here as I do not know whether RIMM has a comprehensive mapping services.

I do know that they have some geolocation services testing via this post

At the same time, if RIMM succeed with their own mapping services, it is also possible for them to kill GRMN’s core business through their deals with automotive.