Research In Motion ($RIMM) : Shipped is not equal sales

This post will not contain any chart reading. Rather, I am just going to raise one key point about RIMM.

There’s an open letter that has been going round the Internet. In it, the letter shed some insights, missteps and frustrations from within RIMM.

RIMM has a response to the open letter.

RIMM’s statement is fair; highlighting its zero debt, cash that the have etc.

However, I just want to remind RIMM about one point that they highlighted.

In fact, while growth has slowed in the US, RIM still shipped 13.2 million BlackBerry smartphones last quarter

RIMM continues to reinforce the strength of their balance sheet and amount of devices shipped.

Well, we have seen this in Nokia as well. And where did Nokia goes? Definitely still around. But, the share price is nothing to be proud of.

I tried Nokia’s E7 which is a fairly new phone and runs on the Symbian platform. As a smartphone, there’s nothing to shout about. In fact, it exposes the very key reason why consumers and developers are jumping to another platform.

Back to RIMM. What lessons can we learn from the above?

For a start, what we see in Nokia can definitely be applied to RIMM. In Nokia’s cace, I am getting the E7 for free. Somewhere, someone is trying to make sure the inventories do not get stuck in the channels. Just a few months back, this same phone would have required me to fork out a few hundred dollars.

On top of this, we also have Palm as a case study. Palm too has shipment figures. But, that does not translate to sales.

While RIMM is still able to milk the entreprises on the BES licensing fees. This is not a strong proposition. It is a great cashflow but the growth may not be there anymore.

Look at iPad. Intercontinental Exchange Ltd (ICE) has already developed apps for it. That means financial institutes are going to encourage their traders to start using the platform. And this is just one case. I am sure there are others that have not been highlighted.

RIMM, NOK, GRMN belongs to the same group. They need to know that It is not the wins but the losses that shows your weakness.


I have PUT options on RIMM and have intention to establish new positions if the chart suggest so.


Research In Motion (RIMM) : New Product, and Kumo resistance

Now that AT&T has unveil RIMM’s new phone, Torch, on its web site…. the question to ask is, “Are you impressed?

Are there any new features that competitors like AAPL or GOOG cannot provide or catch up with?

Let’s take a look at the Ichimoku chart.

Currently, RIMM is heading right smack into the kumo resistance.

With the resistance fairly thick, I am expecting RIMM to retrace to around $52.

One of the things lacking in this product launch is the WOW factor that we see for PALM.

With PALM, the WOW factor pushes it from $6 to around $17-18 before it finally falls under its own weight.

RIMM is slightly different. Revenue is strong. However, the product is missing the WOW.


Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM), Huawei : What it will mean for Huawei?

By now, most sites was already highlighting about Huawei as a potential buyer for Palm Inc.

Many sites have also discussed the various advantage if Company XYZ acquires Palm.

That push me to think a little bit more about Huawei.

So far, most sites have talked about Huawei’s attempt to go into the mobile business and Palm will provide a great platform to build on.

However, if we are to take a step back and think. If you are the bankers, will this be the way you will try to sell to Huawei.

Couple of things we know about Huawei.

  1. They are strong in networking, telco areas and is doing very well.
  2. Without a doubt, Huawei is one of the great success stories of a tech company from China (apart from the likes of Baidu, Sohu etc).
  3. Yet, despite having revenue of more than US$21B, Huawei is not listed.  (source: Reuters )
  4. It’s rival, ZTE, is listed in the Hong Kong exchange.

What if Huawei use Palm to get itself listed? Though, I have to acknowledge that Huawei can get itself listed without going through this.

Surely, the investment bankers have to provide other value added services apart from peddling Palm?