ACC : Update

Richard Woon has an update on the dividend for ACC on SeekingAlpha. In the article, he highlighted some of the possible outcomes. I encouraged for those who are more interested in the fundamentals of ACC to visit the site and read it.

Personally, I shorted ACC yesterday. The position is meant to be short term trade.

1. With yesterday’s drop, we can see that the opening price was right below the 200 day EMA. A perfect indicator to hold ACC’s advances!

2. Over the next few days, the fear indicator from the Swine flu will continue to have an impact on the market. I remember that during the SARS days, the fear was at its height. People were grabbing the N95 masks (and any other masks available in the market) for protection. A lot of it will depends on whether this bug will continue to spread.

3. For now, I will just stick to some simple support level and take profit wherever the opportunity presents. Support level 1: 20.74.  Support level 2: 18.96

4. Do note, that at this moment, this is not a bearish trend. Rather, it is more of an intraday play. We can also see from the chart, that the volume for selling is pretty high as well. I suspect this is just some smart investors/traders taking profit. But, if the selling persists with high volume, those who are ‘long’ in this counter might want to take note that it could be the ‘big boys’ selling.




Alexandria Real Estate (ARE)

Richard Woon of Stripnomics has a good analysis of the challenges facing ARE.

I encourage those who are interested to find out more to visit his site.

My focus is to highlight ARE’s possible support level.

Like Richard, I have a negative outlook on ARE (and in general a number of REITs).

However, we need to be patient with ARE. For the very short term, it is unlikely to break below the support level of 32.77

Why? This is because, we have seen that level being supported 3 times since October 2008. ARE needs to have a very bad news for it to go below that level.

And, off my mind, one of the possibilities is securing refinancing needs.

For this chart, we cannot rely on the kumo for resistant analysis as ARE has a spike in price on 27 Feb. We can see that the Tenkan sen (pink line), the kumo all have ‘abnormal’ behavior because of the spike. However, we can still rely on the Chikou Span (green line) to find our support and resistant levels. 

Looking at the Kijun sen which is flattening out, it is suggesting that the price may stabilize around the trading level of 32 – 37.