$SPX : Bulls yet?


The market has refused to go down for the past 5 trading days since touching the the low of around 1100 during August.

Back then the mood is terrible. Market has wild swings and the trading range is huge. However, with the 1100 ‘bottom’, the support level seems to have held and trading range has narrowed.

We have since see SPX forming higher low, though there is no higher high yet.

With ‘less fear’ in the market now, the question is, “Are we in a bulls market yet?”

From the Ichimoku Chart, we can see:

1. Market has been forming lower lows

2. The kumo is fairly thick; suggesting resistance ahead

3. Weak Tenkan sen – Kijun sen cross

The Tenkan sen – Kijun sen cross signals the attempt that the market is trying to rally back. However, huge resistance comes in the face of the thick kumo.

Unless the price level can break out of the kumo, the view remains bearish.

And if the price level retrace and trades within the kumo, it represents uncertainty and there is no clear bearish/bullish trend if the range is between 1230 and around 1200

Under such conditions, I will continue to short the weak stocks. RIMM.

On my watchlist, I am ready to long the stronger players including $AMZN, $AAPL, $UA; all of which are trading above the kumo.

Consumer Goods

Under Armour, Inc ($UA) : Still bullish? Next entry.


I have some AUGUST CALLS that I have bought for UA prior to its earnings. Along the way, I took some profits.

Even then, yesterday’s UA dramatic drop despite its good earnings have me thinking whether my bullish view on UA will hold.

From the chart, definitely that long bearish candle is a sell.

1. At current level, it is sitting right on the Kijun sen support level around. High chance, we will see a little bit more selling over the next few days. There is no sign of a bearish cross (Tenkan sen cuts Kijun sen) at this point.

2. The leading kumo is still up and have not twist to show a change in trend.I will look for an entry nearer to $70 (where the kumo support is).  The entry will most likely be a combination of CALLS and Vertical Spreads (subject to change depending on chart).

I believe, UA is doing everything right at this point in time and it should have no problem hitting $90. I am looking at a September timeframe for UA to hit $90.

Consumer Goods

Under Armour Inc ($UA) : Cup and Handle. Bullish.

Under Armour ($UA) continues its bullish move up since it breakout from the kumo resistance in end June.

Yesterday, together with the overall market movement, UA hit a new high with a very nice cup and handle forming.

So far, UA has managed to hold its price above the $76 range.

On the Ichimoku chart, all indicators are aligned for a bullish move:

1. Tenkan sen and Kijun sen are pointing upwards

2. Price is trading above the kumo and is going up

3. The Chikou Span has pierced through the recent high and there is no known resistance ahead

4. Leading kumo is showing upwards trend as well.

There is a very high chance that UA will hit $100 by year end since the year end retail sales are not in yet.