Yahoo Inc (YHOO): A bearish view


Yahoo (YHOO) has been trading in a very tight range since its gap up in October last year.

Since that gap up, it has been trading between a low of $15.50 and a high $17.78

The high took place at a time when the S&P 500 was at its peak this year as well.

We can see from the chart that it has drop back below the kumo; a bearish sign.

At this moment, Yahoo (YHOO) is trading below the kumo with a possible resistance from the kumo at $16.60

I will be looking for an entry to short YHOO. A break below $15.50 will give me a target of $14.60 and ultimately, $13.00

Yahoo has been cost cutting for quite a fairly long time. Developers were laid off and a fair amount of work outsource.

As a technological company, what is Yahoo’s strength? And if it is positioning itself as a content company, it will be going against the likes of AOL.

What plus point will want see moving forward? And do shareholders believe that Carol Bartz can re-invent this company?

My personal opinion is NO.

I believe the strategy forward for Yahoo is pretty much focused on getting their balance sheet clean up and looks attractive. After which, they will be acquired and that translate to an exit strategy for the senior management.

What do you think?

Publishing Tech

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) : Bullish Cross With Breakthrough above the Ichimoku’s kumo

Yahoo has a gap up on Sept 10 and since then it has exhibited bullish signals

  • Tenkan sen has cut Kijun sen
  • Price has rise sharply and has pierce through the kumo resistance on the Daily Chart

At this moment, it is challenging its previous high back in July at around $17.59 . Incindently, this is also the last support level when the financial crisis took a dive.

2009Sep-Yahoo! Inc-800x600

On the Weekly Chart, we can see that Yahoo is inside the kumo; a trendless state.

2009Sep-Yahoo! Inc-800x600_Weekly

With the last quarter of 2009 coming up, lots of retailers and brand names will have to start allocating their marketing budget for the final burst. Yahoo has a good relationship with various ads agency and I think we will see some action on this front.

Update: Additional Notes
Over the next 2-3 years, I doubt there will a lot of interesting development for Yahoo, unless they start selling assets.

The only forward looking piece that I am looking at is their partnership with Samsung on the HDTV front. (and we do not know what kind of timeframe is needed to make this a success)

Here’s my thoughts on ads revenue:
– major bulk of ads revenue is still derived from brand names
– TV revenue still accounts for major bulk of marketing allocation compared to online ads

Given the above, it is safe to assume that Yahoo wants to continue building their ‘inventory’ of ads spaces.

Tie up with Samsung is a move to capture the revenue on the TV side


Yahoo (YHOO) : Quick Glance

A quick review of Yahoo:

1. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is not interested to buy Yahoo (YHOO)

April 22 (Bloomberg) — Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer said he’s not interested in buying a hardware company or Yahoo! Inc.

“I have no idea why a software company would be interested in buying a hardware company,” Ballmer said at a conference in Cairo today. “We don’t want to buy a hardware company.”

Here’s something to think about. Just because Microsoft is not buying Yahoo, that doesn’t mean they can’t invest in Yahoo, right?

What  is stopping them from putting money or working out some form of partnership with Yahoo?

Let’s just go back to the when Steve Jobs went back and head Apple. Remember the US$150 million deal with Microsoft? Steve got ‘booed’ for that. Yet, that US$150 million gave Apple a chance to turnaround.

At this moment, it is anyone’s guess what kind of partnership both Microsoft and Yahoo will enter into. It is safe to say that if they want to put a dent on Google’s revenue for advertisement and search engine related stuffs, they need to change the game plan. There is no use trying to play catchup in the search engine area. Google did not do that when they started. They simply blew the competition away. The window of opportunity for better search engine is gone for now. With regulators demanding that data be kept for shorter timeframe, I believe there is only so much the search engine capabilities will improve.

2. Daily Chart and Weekly Chart reviews

Daily Chart

2009apr-yahoo-inc-800x600On the Daily Chart, yesterday, YAHOO went as high as hitting the 200 Day Moving Average before retreating.

At this moment, it is still unable to break through this resistant.

On the Weekly Chart, we can see that it is hitting straight into the kumo.


3. Possible catalyst: a deal with Microsoft

4. Risk : Advertising revenue across the board is expected to remain week for 2009.

5. Others: Will Yahoo-Samsung interactive TV (iTV) deal be  a potential winner?